“The exit environment overall is governed by both cyclical and secular factors. Cyclical factors get a lot of airtime. Often mentioned are supportive macro, LP allocations right-sizing, and “animal spirits”. But the incentives facing sponsors get a vote. And sponsors today seeking to maximize their probability of survival face an environment that incentivizes retaining assets, lengthening their liabilities, and avoiding replacement/origination costs. This is the New Exit Game.”
Once S&P 500 return is decomposed into factors 2024 really stands out.
“… What is particularly interesting about 2024 is how much of the S&P 500 return came from non-systematic (i.e., idiosyncratic) returns, driven by the significant appreciation of the “Magnificent Seven” (Mag-7), which now account for 35% of the S&P 500. Idiosyncratic returns are company specific and by definition should be uncorrelated and random.“
“In fact, idiosyncratic return has never contributed as significantly to the overall S&P 500 return as it has recently. Over the trailing 24 month period, idiosyncratic returns have accounted for 21% of the 51% return of the S&P 500.“
A dictionary of how hard it is to get true knowledge – biases and more.
F – Friedman’s Law of Anecdotes (2010) “Distrust any historical anecdote good enough to have survived on its literary merit”
B – Brandolini’s Law, the Bullshit Asymmetry Principle (2013): “The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.”
C – … Predictions, like advice, often tell you more about the person giving them than about the world.
D – Defensiveness: its embarrassing to be wrong in public, so once you have publicly committed to a position its hard to change your mind.
The SEC introduced certain short-selling disclosure requirements including publication of those on EDGAR that went effective 2nd of January 2025 (full details here).
The first batch of form SHOs are to be submitted 14 days after the end of the calendar month and published at the end of February.
“Every year, the SEC spends ~$14 million responding to 10,000+ FOIA requests. If the SEC responds to a FOIA request with a B7A exemption, that indicates the subject company is likely under an undisclosed SEC investigation, which is “associated with significant negative future abnormal returns.”
“With FOIAsearch.com, you can easily find all past FOIA requests on a company and B7A investigation exemptions in a single search.“
