The Concrete Impact of AI

  • In the US there are 5,000 data centers today, with 450 being added every to 2030.
  • Data centers need a lot of concrete, more so due to AI’s need for bigger servers.
  • This concrete causes a lot of emissions, throwing a spanner in big tech emission targets, and leading to high demand for so-called green concrete.

You don’t Own Anything

  • The transformation of technology to the -as-a-service model has led to many positives, yet it has led to a situation where users don’t own anything.
  • This creates vulnerabilities – “years ago websites were made of files; now they are made of dependencies.”
  • If the current trend of technology is sweeping us in a direction of “everything is amazing, but nothing is ours”, Technology that’s Actually Yours could be the next great counter-trend.

State of Venture

  • A discussion on how venture capital just isn’t what it used to be.
  • Large rounds for companies lead to perverse incentives – the speakers estimate just 5% of the 1,400 pre-LLM unicorns would raise an up-round today.
  • These round sizes continue today (though in part explained by the increased capital intensity of AI based startups).
  • Large funds could also lead to a reshaping of portfolio return curves, with consequences that are yet to be seen.

Globalization’s Resiliance is Partly Tax

  • Globalization has also persisted because the Trump-Ryan reforms to the U.S. corporate tax system, implemented through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), did not end tax-related incentives for U.S. firms to offshore production and profits.
  • A reversal of the latter could be an issue for big pharma and semiconductor firms.
  • China’s export-led growth strategy is the other, admittedly larger, driver.
  • Blog post here and full paper here.

The Rise of Chinese Biotech

  • China is making immense progress in many fields. Biotechnology is no exception.
  • A 2024 IQVIA report shows that the share of clinical trials launched by Chinese-headquartered biopharmaceutical companies rose from 3 percent in 2013 to 28 percent in 2023, suggesting a growing involvement of Chinese companies in early-phase drug development.
  • More interesting charts on the topic here.
WordPress Cookie Notice by Real Cookie Banner