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“Semiconductor share price performance relative to the market leads the ISM manufacturing by six months. Recent relative weakness in semiconductor markets is consistent with our view that lead indicators have further to fall. Historically, we would look for sector share prices to trough concurrently with lead indicators.“
As the US Economy slows and there are signs inflation might be rolling over, what the Fed will continue to do becomes very important for the rest of the cycle.
This is a really useful crib sheet of what the various Fed speakers have been saying organised in an easy to use way.
It is produced by fx:macro – a really comprehensive newsletter for those who want to get a good pulse on what central banks are up to.
Chart of average term to maturity of the outstanding stock of government debt.
As interest rates rise around the world and fiscal tools are being used to cushion the energy shock, it is worth keeping these numbers in mind when assessing country risks.
QE has actually distorted the usability of this metric as described so well in this OBR piece.
Sometimes ideas come in seconds and the job is done.
Yet, those paying for these ideas always equate time spent to value. They want to pay for process.
“How can it be that you talk to someone and it’s done in a second? But it IS done in a second — it’s done in a second and 34 years. It’s done in a second and every experience, and every movie, and everything in my life that’s in my head.“
Taken from FS this quote is from Paula Scher who conceived the Citi logo in seconds.
There is a great story in the link as well along the same lines.
Professional investing can actually sometimes feel the same way. Especially if you believe in Blink.
If you haven’t come across it before, effective altruism is an interesting movement that coined the term “longtermism”.
It says of the human race – “We’ve been around for approximately 300,000 years. There are now about 8 billion of us, roughly 15 percent of all humans who have ever lived.“
“You may think that’s a lot, but it’s just peanuts to the future. If we survive for another million years—the longevity of a typical mammalian species—at even a tenth of our current population, there will be 8 trillion more of us. We’ll be outnumbered by future people on the scale of a thousand to one.“
One of the movements champions – William MacAskill – has recently written a book that has received much attention (to be expected for such a well funded movement).
“What We Owe The Future” is worth knowing about – and this is a very good review of it.
