WeWork Resurrection

  • WeWork is trying to go public again, this time via a SPAC.
  • Below is a link to their investment deck. Lots of interesting data.
  • The company lost $1.7bn last year but expects things to improve as normal conditions return.
  • They believe a WeWork solution would save 26% vs. the cost of traditional real-estate.
  • The transaction puts enterprise value at $9bn or 6.6x adjusted 2023E EBITDA.
  • There are a lot of adjustments to EBITDA that need to be looked into and SPAC transactions have issues, but on the surface that looks a lot more reasonable than the peak valuation of $47bn.

a16z Marketplace 100: 2021

  • The latest edition of the top 100 private/start-up consumer facing marketplaces using Bloomberg real-time consumer spending data.
  • A lot has changed in 2020 for obvious reasons. The full report is here.
  • Interesting to see Turo at number 9 (up 5 places), which is an investment (they own ca. 26.8%) by IAC that few talk about.

Inflation Extrapolation

  • Nice chart from KKR showing how investors in the 2000s have over-extrapolated the persistence of early cycle inflation.
  • The reason this happens is early cycle pops in commodity prices and disposable incomes don’t flow through to core consumer prices.
  • Consumer goods themselves are also only a quarter of core CPI.
  • See page 17 of the report for details.

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Automotive Semis

  • Informative post on what is going on in automotive semiconductor markets.
  • Shortages in the short term – mainly because the pandemic wrong-footed car makers.
  • Growth in the long term – driven by the amount of semi-content in a car (an electric vehicle has 110% more content than a conventional vehicle, autonomous driving doubles that).

Being Negative

  • This is an eye-opening essay on The Art of Negativity with useful read-across to investing.
  • This was an interesting result from research – “there is a clear asymmetry in the way that adults use positive versus negative information to make sense of their world; specifically, across an array of psychological situations and tasks, adults display a negativity bias, or the propensity to attend to, learn from, and use negative information far more than positive information.“”
  • A nice quote – “An optimist believes we live in the best possible of worlds. A pessimist fears that this is true.
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