UK Housing

  • This is a chart that shows how, after a change in planning policy (NPPF) in the UK in 2012, the amount of land permitted for construction went up.
  • New building starts and completions on the other hand didn’t.
  • In other words house-builder hoarded the land and constrained supply.
  • On the other side help-to-buy continued to keep demand strong inflating prices.
  • Margins went up to 20%

Google Project X

  • Great article from Wired on Google X.
  • We are a creativity organisation, not a technology organisation.” 
  • The real test is 15 to 20 years from now, when the dust is settled and we look backwards. Then how are we doing?” Teller says. Until then, there will always be more crazy ideas worth chasing. “The world’s got more than enough problems, sadly.

Schrodinger

  • Citron Research, famed for short selling reports, are recommending long this stock – Schrodinger (SDRG).
  • They describe it as – “the most disruptive software platform to ever hit the pharmaceutical industry, which also happens to be backed by the world’s most sophisticated investors, has just gone public.
  • Looks interesting and is worth investigating. The shares are sadly ca. +100% since IPO already.
  • As always with investing – this is not a recommendation, do your own work, use common sense.

Labour vs. Profits

  • A great set of charts from Bridgewater Research.
  • The left hand shows how US company profit margins have trended up largely thanks to productivity gains outpacing real wage growth.
  • In other words profits rise because workers are getting paid a smaller share of the output they produce.
  • Part of this is due to wages being driven down globally by the emergence of China (right hand chart).
  • China has seen rising wages outpacing productivity growth and hence companies grabbing a smaller share.

Asking Questions?

  • This is a great read on how to ask good questions and why that is so important.
  • “Nobel-prize winner, physicist Arno Penzias, when asked what accounted for his success, replied,“I went for the jugular question.”
  • Still practicing his questioning discipline today, Penzias recently commented at a Fast Company Conference, “Change starts with the individual. So the first thing I do each morning is ask myself, ‘Why do I strongly believe what I believe?’ Constantly examine your own assumptions.”

Construction

  • Interesting post from FT Alphaville about construction.
  • It discusses a recent IMF note which shows that the construction sector is often a great canary in the coal mine of economic activity.
  • An additional percentage point of value-added or employment growth in the construction sector during a boom raises the probability of the boom being bad—followed by subpar economic performance or a systemic financial crisis—by 2 and 5 percentage points, respectively.
  • Strikingly, in our sample, long-lasting booms that featured rapid construction growth never ended well.
  • Interesting point that because inflation doesn’t account for housing costs properly the central banks will always be behind the curve.

Salmon

  • Salmon, as it is a fresh high value discretionary product, could be an interesting lead indicator?
  • Right now there is no trade with China of salmon, although you can find the air freight for the salmon. It doesn’t help because you don’t have the clients. And the price is also very high because of the cost of air freights…There people do not go out and eat….95% of the salmon consumption in China is through restaurants and the likes. So 120,000 tonnes of that market is out.Mowi Conference Call via thetranscript.
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