- Very useful site aggregating constituency-level predictions for the upcoming election.
- Summary – “This summary shows, for each model and each party, the number of seats where that party is predicted to get the most votes.“
Macroeconomics
Snippets on the big picture.
Wage Data
- Paychex small business wage growth data is soggy.
- “Hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.13% in May, recording the lowest level since June 2021 (2.90%).“
- “One-month annualized hourly earnings growth was 2.11%, more than one percent below the year-over-year rate and the lowest level since November 2020 (1.74%).“
Capital Markets
- Nice chart showing capital markets liquidity i.e. issuance across equity and debt as a % of GDP.
- Very depressed levels but turning up?
- Source.
Productivity Growth
- Chart from KKR’s mid-year outlook showing that productivity could be accelerating leading to a boom as it did in the 1960s and 1990-00s.
Asset Turnover
- One of the reasons US stocks have outperformed is that asset turnover (a key efficiency measure) has stayed high.
- From the excellent ChartStorm Perspectives Pack (download free for SF readers).
Commercial Construction
- Weak.
Plentiful Jobs
- This measure is falling in line with what has been seen in recent recessions.
Problem Bank Count Ticking up?
- “The number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” increased from 52 to 63. Total assets held by problem banks rose $15.8 billion to $82.1 billion. Problem banks represent 1.4 percent of total banks, which is within the normal range for non-crisis periods of 1 to 2 percent of all banks.“
- CRE looks to be causing some problems – “The noncurrent rate for non-owner occupied CRE loans of 1.59 percent is now at its highest level since fourth quarter 2013, driven by office portfolios at the largest banks.“
- Source.
Grant’s Speech
- Jim Grant’s speech at Strategas’ 17th annual Macro Conference conference (free, requires sign-up).
News vs. Consumer Sentiment
- Fairly large divergence.
- Source.
Hard vs. Soft Components
- Soft elements of NFIB small business survey have fallen hard while hard elements have held up.
Changing One’s Mind
- Angus Deaton rethinks.
Inventory Cycle
- Re-stocking coming?
- Source.
Job Insecurity
- Worry about losing one’s job has risen sharply.
- Source.
Credit
- The rise of credit outside of the more heavily regulated banking system is something that continues to be a key vulnerability.
- Source.
US Infrastructure is Aging
- There is a significant need for new infrastructure.
- Source: Apollo.
Consumer Spending is Late Cycle
- Often discussed, but in fact consumption decline is a late cycle phenomenon.
CPI Upside Explained
- CPI stopped going down. Why? It is largely down to two components (Source).
- Auto insurance – though this is surprising as repair cost growth is moderating.
- Shelter – which is a difficult component full of assumptions.
- FT Alphaville has a deeper look – suggesting things aren’t so grim.
Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity
- Harvard tracks the short-term outlook for home improvement spend.
- “The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.“
- Right now a bottom is seen in Q3 2024. The trajectory is a big upgrade on their previous outlook.
Cash on sidelines
- Plenty of liquidity in MMF as % of disposable income.
- Source.
