- “The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.“
- May took another dive.
Macroeconomics
Snippets on the big picture.
New Car Prices
- Recent experience looks very much out of place.
- Source: Fundstrat.
Bank Lending
- Weekly lending data shows a dramatic decline.
- Source.
Soft landing?
- The ISM has been at or below 50 for 18 months now.
- “…where we’ve reached these heights previously, we’ve either been in a recession, or had one about to begin.“
- Source: more reasons for recession here.
Commercial Real Estate
UK Public Spending
- Everything but healthcare has seen very sharp cutbacks.
- “What international comparisons tell us is that these cuts in public spending have moved the UK to the bottom of the G7 in terms of spending and taxation.“
- Source: Mainlymacro.
UK Election Prediction Aggregator
- Very useful site aggregating constituency-level predictions for the upcoming election.
- Summary – “This summary shows, for each model and each party, the number of seats where that party is predicted to get the most votes.“
Wage Data
- Paychex small business wage growth data is soggy.
- “Hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.13% in May, recording the lowest level since June 2021 (2.90%).“
- “One-month annualized hourly earnings growth was 2.11%, more than one percent below the year-over-year rate and the lowest level since November 2020 (1.74%).“
Capital Markets
- Nice chart showing capital markets liquidity i.e. issuance across equity and debt as a % of GDP.
- Very depressed levels but turning up?
- Source.
Productivity Growth
- Chart from KKR’s mid-year outlook showing that productivity could be accelerating leading to a boom as it did in the 1960s and 1990-00s.
Asset Turnover
- One of the reasons US stocks have outperformed is that asset turnover (a key efficiency measure) has stayed high.
- From the excellent ChartStorm Perspectives Pack (download free for SF readers).
Commercial Construction
- Weak.
Plentiful Jobs
- This measure is falling in line with what has been seen in recent recessions.
Problem Bank Count Ticking up?
- “The number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” increased from 52 to 63. Total assets held by problem banks rose $15.8 billion to $82.1 billion. Problem banks represent 1.4 percent of total banks, which is within the normal range for non-crisis periods of 1 to 2 percent of all banks.“
- CRE looks to be causing some problems – “The noncurrent rate for non-owner occupied CRE loans of 1.59 percent is now at its highest level since fourth quarter 2013, driven by office portfolios at the largest banks.“
- Source.
Grant’s Speech
- Jim Grant’s speech at Strategas’ 17th annual Macro Conference conference (free, requires sign-up).
News vs. Consumer Sentiment
- Fairly large divergence.
- Source.
Hard vs. Soft Components
- Soft elements of NFIB small business survey have fallen hard while hard elements have held up.
Changing One’s Mind
- Angus Deaton rethinks.
Inventory Cycle
- Re-stocking coming?
- Source.
Job Insecurity
- Worry about losing one’s job has risen sharply.
- Source.
