- By 2026 Mag7 is forecast to grow at a rate only slightly above the rest of the market.
- Source: GS.
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
Valuations
- Adjusting for sector weights leads to a very different picture of the valuation of various markets.
- Source.
E-commerce Growth
- E-commerce isn’t growing as fast as it used to.
- Source.
Chinese Biotech
- Nearly a third of big pharma in-licensed molecules are sourced from China.
- Source: Stifel Biopharma Outlook 2025 (full deck).
Ecommerce Trends
- Online share of grocery spending jumped during Covid but has stayed at this high level.
- Source: Consumer Trends Report (lots of good charts inside).
Marketplace Pulse Year In Review
- Want a guide to what happened in the world of ecommerce in 2024? Read here.
- The most fascinating development continues to be a move from made in China, to sold by China to now, with the rise of Temu and Shein, promoted by China.
- Retail media has taken over from traditional TV in terms of advertising dollars.
Hinge
- The dating app has achieved something remarkable – a higher % of women users than men (based on UK data).
- Source (tons of interesting data inside).
Valuations and Forward Returns
- The last decade has been fruitful for equity investors generating 13% annualized returns. Why?
- Starting valuations were attractive and investors could buy the S&P 500 at a CAPE of around 20x.
- History dictates that today’s starting valuations will lead to near-zero forward returns.
Biotech Year In Review – 2024
- From obesity to new modalities, Atlas Venture’s year end presentation is a must-listen for biotech investors.
- You can find the slides inside Stifel’s weekly.
Breaking Up is Good
- Elliott are after Honeywell with a $5bn stake and a letter arguing for a break-up.
- This chart from their letter shows how splitting up has led to improved performance – which so far the stock market has rewarded handsomely (e.g. CARR is worth more now than UTX was pre-spins).
Durable Growth is Hard
- A tiny subset of companies can keep growth and high margins going for long periods.
- Source.
TSMC in America
- The semiconductor manufacturing company’s $65bn foray into the Arizona desert is a meeting of cultures, technologies, education, politics, and geopolitics.
- Through interviews with dozens of employees, this article addresses the still open question – will it succeed?
Airlines Quietly Quitting China
- Foreign airlines are cutting capacity for a whole host of reasons (Russian airspace, economy etc), and Chinese airlines are stepping in.
- Full article here.
FTC and Pharma Mergers
- In 2023 the FTC substantially changed guidelines for antitrust enforcement.
- This has had far and wide ramifications for the pharmaceutical industry.
Decline of LA Film and TV Production
- Remarkable.
- Source: Hollywood reporter.
Problem for Media Companies
- If you have ever tried to cancel a subscription you know how hard it can sometimes be.
- After 16,000 public comments, the FTC is acting.
- This could be a problem for media companies.
Sector Returns from here?
- During previous instances of soft landing (if there is one) + rate cuts sector returns looked like this.
- Source: Apollo.
Lean against Concentration
- It has historically paid to deviate from the market as concentration rises.
- Source: Schroders.
Seeing like a CEO
- What really happened at Boeing?
Bull and Bear Markets
- This chart is a good visual of how long bull markets last compared to bear markets.
