UK IPOs
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
UK IPOs
Streaming Churn
- Streaming churn keeps getting worse. A big problem for media companies.
- Source: Excellent slide deck on media.
Concentration Dichotomy
- Value has gotten less concentrated.
- Source.
US Electricity Demand
- Is starting to show growth (January data below).
- Feels like the electrification trend could have legs.
Time Spent on Media
- One of the big reasons media is so tough to invest in – time spent with media is flatlining.
- Source: Excellent slide deck on media.
2024 was Exceptional
- Once S&P 500 return is decomposed into factors 2024 really stands out.
- “… What is particularly interesting about 2024 is how much of the S&P 500 return came from non-systematic (i.e., idiosyncratic) returns, driven by the significant appreciation of the “Magnificent Seven” (Mag-7), which now account for 35% of the S&P 500. Idiosyncratic returns are company specific and by definition should be uncorrelated and random.“
- “In fact, idiosyncratic return has never contributed as significantly to the overall S&P 500 return as it has recently. Over the trailing 24 month period, idiosyncratic returns have accounted for 21% of the 51% return of the S&P 500.“
- Will it repeat?
- Source.
Mag7 Matter
- The top seven US stocks are very profitable, accounting for a high percentage of profits of the entire G7 market.
- Source: DB via themarketear.
Mag7 Earnings Growth Slowing?
- By 2026 Mag7 is forecast to grow at a rate only slightly above the rest of the market.
- Source: GS.
Valuations
- Adjusting for sector weights leads to a very different picture of the valuation of various markets.
- Source.
E-commerce Growth
- E-commerce isn’t growing as fast as it used to.
- Source.
Chinese Biotech
- Nearly a third of big pharma in-licensed molecules are sourced from China.
- Source: Stifel Biopharma Outlook 2025 (full deck).
Ecommerce Trends
- Online share of grocery spending jumped during Covid but has stayed at this high level.
- Source: Consumer Trends Report (lots of good charts inside).
Marketplace Pulse Year In Review
- Want a guide to what happened in the world of ecommerce in 2024? Read here.
- The most fascinating development continues to be a move from made in China, to sold by China to now, with the rise of Temu and Shein, promoted by China.
- Retail media has taken over from traditional TV in terms of advertising dollars.
Hinge
- The dating app has achieved something remarkable – a higher % of women users than men (based on UK data).
- Source (tons of interesting data inside).
Valuations and Forward Returns
- The last decade has been fruitful for equity investors generating 13% annualized returns. Why?
- Starting valuations were attractive and investors could buy the S&P 500 at a CAPE of around 20x.
- History dictates that today’s starting valuations will lead to near-zero forward returns.
Biotech Year In Review – 2024
- From obesity to new modalities, Atlas Venture’s year end presentation is a must-listen for biotech investors.
- You can find the slides inside Stifel’s weekly.
Breaking Up is Good
- Elliott are after Honeywell with a $5bn stake and a letter arguing for a break-up.
- This chart from their letter shows how splitting up has led to improved performance – which so far the stock market has rewarded handsomely (e.g. CARR is worth more now than UTX was pre-spins).
Durable Growth is Hard
- A tiny subset of companies can keep growth and high margins going for long periods.
- Source.
TSMC in America
- The semiconductor manufacturing company’s $65bn foray into the Arizona desert is a meeting of cultures, technologies, education, politics, and geopolitics.
- Through interviews with dozens of employees, this article addresses the still open question – will it succeed?
Airlines Quietly Quitting China
- Foreign airlines are cutting capacity for a whole host of reasons (Russian airspace, economy etc), and Chinese airlines are stepping in.
- Full article here.
