- Nice slide from KLA.
- “So I tried just to put together this chart to show how different the GPU package is between 2015 & 2024. So of course, the B100 chip, the GPU introduced a few months ago, and this is not enough because Jensen has already introduced the next generation of GPU last week” (h/t The Transcript).
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
AI Publisher Partnership Tracker
- Tracking all the AI deals between publishers and platforms.
Semi vs Software
- This level of outperformance has only happened twice before in the last two decades.
- Source: themarketear.com
GLP-1s and Addiction
- There is probably enough evidence now to suggest GLP-1s, like Ozempic, work to treat all kinds of addiction.
- Why does this matter? “Addiction kills more Americans than cancer or heart disease but only 4% of people with substance use disorders currently receive medication.“
- The big breakthrough in this field will likely be the next generation of weight loss drugs, especially orals.
Concentration and Active Management
- “Rising stock market concentration is challenging for active managers because on average they own stocks with smaller market capitalizations than those in their benchmarks. That means when large-cap stocks do well relative to small-cap stocks, the percentage of mutual funds that outperform the benchmark tends to go down. When small caps outperform large caps, active managers outperform at a higher rate. Exhibit 7 shows this relationship from 1960 to 2023. The striped red dot shows the outcome for 2023.“
- Source: Mauboussin.
Mobile Internet vs. AI Cycle
- Long way to go?
- Source: themarketear.
Data Center Boom
- Nice WSJ piece on the pace and challenges of building data centers to meet booming demand.
- “Bill Vass, vice president of engineering at Amazon Web Services, said a new data center pops up somewhere in the world every three days.“
Animal Health
Algo Collusion
Retail Frenzy
- Retail purchases of leveraged equity ETFs. Sign of the times?
- Source.
Valuation Chart
- Useful calibration of EV/EBITDA valuation multiple relative to growth in EBITDA and ROIC-WACC.
- Source.
Short Seller Outlook
- Interesting, Q1 letter from a short seller looking for shorts at the thematic level.
Merger Arb
- The probability of deal success is currently very low. In a small part, this is due to interest rates but also an aggressive DOJ/FTC (see JetBlue/Spirit).
- Source.
Fintech Customers
- When looking at younger customer cohorts, fintechs are catching up.
- Source.
Composite Dividend and Buyback Yield
- Once buybacks are added the S&P 500 yield doesn’t look so bad.
Stanford AI Index Report
- The latest report is worth a flick.
Frequent Acquirers
- Bain study shows that frequent acquirers outperform.
- “To put some data behind this assertion, from 2000 to 2010 companies that were frequent acquirers earned 57% higher shareholder returns vs. those that stayed out of the market. Now that advantage is about 130% (see Figure 1).“
Foreign Stocks IPOing in the US
- Hit a record 40% of all IPOs last year (20% from China).
- Source: Topdown Charts.
SPOT Annual Music Economics
- Interesting stats in this report.
- For example, the remarkable growth in earnings artists – across thresholds these numbers have tripled since 2017.
Life after GLP-1
- What are the next 10 weight loss drugs and what GLP-1 problems do they solve?
- Tolerability looks to be important long-term followed closely by supply, the key constraint currently as GLP-1 molecules are peptides, which could be solved instantly if a non-peptide white pill is developed.
