- “In model year 2022, the average estimated real-world CO2 emission rate for all new vehicles fell by 10 g/mi to 337 g/mi, the lowest ever measured. Real-world fuel economy increased by 0.6 mpg, to a record high 26.0 mpg.1 This is the largest single year improvement in CO2 emission rates and fuel economy in nine years.“
- 2023 model year is already showing improvement on this.
- The long-term trend is encouraging (see chart) all while horsepower is up 88% since 1975 (see page 27).
- Loads more excellent data from 2023 EPA Automotive Trends Report.
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
EVs Having Issues
- Something not so good is going on in EV land – and it isn’t aggressive Chinese competition.
- Hertz for one has decided to dump 20,000 EVs citing hidden costs, especially of accidents.
- “Expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EVs, remained high in the quarter, thereby supporting the Company’s decision to initiate the material reduction in the EV fleet.“
- Then there is this chart showing EVs are taking longer to sell.
Dispersion of Estimates
Insurance Adjuster
- A fascinating glimpse into the world of how the decision to total a car by an insurance company after an accident is made.
Japan Becoming More Dynamic
Transsion Holdings
- China’s Transsion Holdings is a smartphone maker you may have never heard of.
- Not only are they the world’s number five, but more impressively they command 40% market share of Africa’s smartphone market.
Retail Investors – a new base level
- It looks like retail trading has seen a step change since the pandemic that has stuck and even accelerated.
- Source.
Streaming Prices
- Music streaming has seen declining prices when adjusted for inflation and new shared plans.
- Source: Pivotal (lots of interesting charts on music streaming inside).
Cheap Cars are Disappearing
- “Based on S&P Global Mobility analysis of registration data since 2017, the US market has seen a significant decline in the share of new vehicles registered below a $30,000 price point. In just seven years, the percentage of vehicles registered with an MSRP below $30,000 has decreased from half the market to barely one-quarter – with vehicles in the $41,000-$60,000 band taking up nearly the entirety of that vehicle count.“
- Source: S&P Global
Autonomous Vehicle Safety
- “In over 3.8 million miles driven without a human being behind the steering wheel in rider-only mode, the Waymo Driver (Waymo’s fully autonomous driving technology) incurred zero bodily injury claims in comparison with the human driver baseline of 1.11 claims per million miles. The Waymo Driver also significantly reduced property damage claims to 0.78 claims per million miles in comparison with the human driver baseline of 3.26 claims per million miles.“
- Source: Swiss Re.
Semi Patents in China
- Major firms badly lag international peers in terms of patents.
- Source.
China’s Position in Semis
- Source: S&P Global.
Sector Valuations
- Chart of SPX sector P/E ratios vs their own history.
Coatue AI Revolution Deck
- Interesting deck that has been doing the rounds.
- To be taken with the usual “bottom left to top right charts” pinch of salt.
Japanese Stock Ownership
- Dramatic transformation over the past 20 years.
- If you split it up into insiders (financial/corporate) and outsiders (everyone else), the former ownership peaked at 70% during the bubble years and has come down to 20%.
- Source: GMO
IRA and Pharma
- Interesting set of company quotes on views about the impact of IRA on Medicare negotiating drug prices.
- Most of the industry has launched multi-pronged lawsuits (including constitutional challenges) against this.
- To read more transcripts from AlphaSense Expert Insights get a free two-week trial here [use work email].
Activate TMT Outlook 2024
- Handy report on everything technology and media with useful stats.
Pension Plans
- One upside of rising bond yields is pension plan liabilities. These are pricing downwards pushing many pension plans into surplus relieving the cash flow pressure on sponsor companies.
AI and Healthcare
- Healthcare is one area where the application of AI, in its LLM and other forms, could be enormous.
- This nice article from AlphaSense Expert Insights explores the topic, mirroring the huge rise in expert calls in the sector mentioning the term.
- It is not all areas that can be bent to the will of ML. As this piece argues, academic literature and the correspondent knowledge graph is both difficult and not that useful to program.
- If you want to read some of these transcripts, you can grab a two-week free trial.
Earnings Yield vs. Cash Yield
- Rare to see S&P earnings yields go far below cash yields.
