- Nice chart showing performance of fads, 12 months after search interest peaks.
- Source: Lykeion excellent Markets Update newsletter.
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
Crowding in Biotech Development
- “An analysis of biopharma pipelines shows that the average number of assets per target investigated has more than doubled: 3 assets/target in 2000 to 7/target today. The number of assets in clinical development is outpacing the number of biological approaches, particularly in oncology.”
- Source.
Bioprocessing
- EC merger control does a lot of in-depth work on industries and often it is some of the best analysis one can read.
- Here for example is their work on the bioprocessing industry in their decision on DHR’s acquisition of GE Biopharma.
AI Moat
- This leaked memo from Google has been doing the rounds last two weeks.
- The jist is that no one has a moat in AI.
- The arguments boil down to the idea that there has been so much innovation that open source will win.
- Ben Thompson lists a few counterarguments about why this might not be true.
- The other point, mentioned by a friend, is having intellectual property infringement experience as a key competitive advantage.
Sohn Conference Summary
- Genreally a good source of new stock ideas (with the usual pinch of “talking your own book”).
Biotech Downcycle
- Tracking worse than previous sell-offs.
Tech Adoption Speeds
- It is well known that technology adoption has accelerated.
- In that context this chart needs no comment.
Investing in Mainland China is Getting Harder
- China is quietly tightening access to vital investing databases, like company ownership, to outside eyes.
Aerospace
- How did the US gain its aerospace supremacy?
- Why is there a risk it might not endure?
- “Aerospace is one of the deepest branches of humanity’s technological tree. It is a telling fact that more countries have produced a nuclear bomb than mass-produced a jet engine.“
- Fascinating read.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Lidar Hypecycle
- Classic hypercycle in lidar companies – share prices deflated just as the true benefits of the technology are starting to come through.
- Source: JPM.
Semiconductor Inventory Days
- A new trend?
- Source.
Nasdaq
- Really something that QQQ relative to Russel 2000 (IWM) is almost back to 2021 peak with record speed.
- Source: themarketear
Marketplace 100
- Doesn’t need much introduction but the latest analysis (based on credit card data) of marketplaces from a16z is out.
- The latest edition is much more interactive with some interesting conclusions (e.g. amazing how ticketing marketplaces keep launching).
Fintech Valuations
- F-prime produces some good analysis on the state of fintech.
- This chart shows that within the fintech space, the premium on high growth has almost totally disappeared since the 2021 boom.
Something has to give – Banks
- This chart depicts UK banks (FTSE 350) but the picture is likely the same elsewhere.
- Either ROE will fall or P/B will rise.
- Source.
Arnault’s Hunt for Gucci in 1999
- Much has changed since then, but this behind-the-scenes Vanity Fair article shines a bright light on the corporate behemoth Arnault and his tactics, as he pursued Gucci in 1999.
Divine Semiconductors
- If you haven’t come across it already, read and marvel at this article by a Wired journalist who took a tour of a TSMC semiconductor fab.
- “Every six months, just one of TSMC’s 13 foundries—the redoubtable Fab 18 in Tainan—carves and etches a quintillion transistors for Apple. In the form of these miniature masterpieces, which sit atop microchips, the semiconductor industry churns out more objects in a year than have ever been produced in all the other factories in all the other industries in the history of the world.” (h/t The Diff)
Nelson Peltz – Not Just an Activist
- “If you look at Mr. Peltz’s track record, this guy used to drive trucks for his father’s food company. You might know that cold drink called Snapple. Nelson Peltz and his colleagues bought that brand after it had been run into the ground by Quaker Oats from $1 billion brand to 300 million brand. Mr. Peltz bought it around 98, 99. Within three years, they turned it around, made it a $1 billion brand again, and sold it off to Cadbury. These are folks who have real experience. They’re not just activist investors. They’ve done this. They have gotten their hands dirty.”
- From the Stream Insights blog
- If you want free access to their expert call transcripts for two weeks click here.
When it Stares You in the Eyes?
- According to Stifel (via themarketear) historically stocks trade in a range and only start to properly struggle when recession is clear.
