- Chart decomposing the outperformance of MSCI US vs. MSCI EU from 2010 until last year.
- Source.
Stocks
Interesting, and often contrarian, Snippets on individual companies and the stock market.
European Equity Valuations vs. US
- After a recent rally, the discount is back to its post-2011 average.
UK Valuations
- A nice set of six charts showing how cheap the UK is.
- The UK trades at a near-record 40% forward P/E discount to the US and 20% vs the EU.
- Almost every industry, as seen in the chart, is cheaper than the US.
Nike DTC
Investing in Fads
- Nice chart showing performance of fads, 12 months after search interest peaks.
- Source: Lykeion excellent Markets Update newsletter.
Crowding in Biotech Development
- “An analysis of biopharma pipelines shows that the average number of assets per target investigated has more than doubled: 3 assets/target in 2000 to 7/target today. The number of assets in clinical development is outpacing the number of biological approaches, particularly in oncology.”
- Source.
Bioprocessing
- EC merger control does a lot of in-depth work on industries and often it is some of the best analysis one can read.
- Here for example is their work on the bioprocessing industry in their decision on DHR’s acquisition of GE Biopharma.
AI Moat
- This leaked memo from Google has been doing the rounds last two weeks.
- The jist is that no one has a moat in AI.
- The arguments boil down to the idea that there has been so much innovation that open source will win.
- Ben Thompson lists a few counterarguments about why this might not be true.
- The other point, mentioned by a friend, is having intellectual property infringement experience as a key competitive advantage.
Sohn Conference Summary
- Genreally a good source of new stock ideas (with the usual pinch of “talking your own book”).
Biotech Downcycle
- Tracking worse than previous sell-offs.
Tech Adoption Speeds
- It is well known that technology adoption has accelerated.
- In that context this chart needs no comment.
Investing in Mainland China is Getting Harder
- China is quietly tightening access to vital investing databases, like company ownership, to outside eyes.
Aerospace
- How did the US gain its aerospace supremacy?
- Why is there a risk it might not endure?
- “Aerospace is one of the deepest branches of humanity’s technological tree. It is a telling fact that more countries have produced a nuclear bomb than mass-produced a jet engine.“
- Fascinating read.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Lidar Hypecycle
- Classic hypercycle in lidar companies – share prices deflated just as the true benefits of the technology are starting to come through.
- Source: JPM.
Semiconductor Inventory Days
- A new trend?
- Source.
Nasdaq
- Really something that QQQ relative to Russel 2000 (IWM) is almost back to 2021 peak with record speed.
- Source: themarketear
Marketplace 100
- Doesn’t need much introduction but the latest analysis (based on credit card data) of marketplaces from a16z is out.
- The latest edition is much more interactive with some interesting conclusions (e.g. amazing how ticketing marketplaces keep launching).
Fintech Valuations
- F-prime produces some good analysis on the state of fintech.
- This chart shows that within the fintech space, the premium on high growth has almost totally disappeared since the 2021 boom.
Something has to give – Banks
- This chart depicts UK banks (FTSE 350) but the picture is likely the same elsewhere.
- Either ROE will fall or P/B will rise.
- Source.
