Knowing Things is Hard

  • A dictionary of how hard it is to get true knowledge – biases and more.
  • FFriedman’s Law of Anecdotes (2010) “Distrust any historical anecdote good enough to have survived on its literary merit”
  • BBrandolini’s Law, the Bullshit Asymmetry Principle (2013): “The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.”
  • C – … Predictions, like advice, often tell you more about the person giving them than about the world.
  • DDefensiveness: its embarrassing to be wrong in public, so once you have publicly committed to a position its hard to change your mind. 

FOIA Search

  • “Every year, the SEC spends ~$14 million responding to 10,000+ FOIA requests. If the SEC responds to a FOIA request with a B7A exemption, that indicates the subject company is likely under an undisclosed SEC investigation, which is “associated with significant negative future abnormal returns.”
  • With FOIAsearch.com, you can easily find all past FOIA requests on a company and B7A investigation exemptions in a single search.
  • Source.

Investment Quotes

  • “There seems to be an unwritten rule on Wall Street: If you don’t understand it, then put your life savings into it.” Lynch.
  • “If you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get.” Munger.
  • “When you want to test the depths of the stream, don’t use both feet.” Chinese proverb.
  • And more.

How to read well

  • Read mostly fiction. Why? “Careful descriptions and summaries miss too much of the world. Hard distinctions make bad philosophy“.
  • Read slowly.
  • Start many books, but complete only a few.
  • Buy on a whim – “If you create a home library it should act as one: It is there for you to discover and rediscover, to get lost in” – an anti-library.
  • And a few more ideas.
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