Tools

Evergreen resources and for the voracious learner.

Tools

The Transcript

  • The Transcript – is a very good service.
  • They comb company transcripts for interesting quotes.
  • A few from the latest one.
  • “I’ve been so impressed with the Disney+ execution. Over 20 years of watching different businesses, incumbents, like Blockbuster and Walmart and all these companies, I’ve never seen such a good execution of the incumbent learning the new way and mastering it. And then to have them achieve over 50 million in six months, it’s stunning. So to see both the execution and the numbers line up, my hats off to them.” Netflix CEO Reed Hastings
  • “Thus far through April, our in-patient admissions are running about 30% below the prior year. Our emergency room visits are running about 50% below prior year as our in-patient surgeries. Our hospital based outpatient surgeries are running about 70% below our prior year as most elective procedures have been deferred. We have started to see these volume declines stabilize over the past week.” HCA CFO Bill Rutherford
  • “There hasn’t been enough debate about ability to make billions of doses. And for the record, we have 10,000 people producing over a billion doses right now of our own vaccine portfolio. This is not easy to do.“  Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson
Tools

Covid Chart

  • A good chart from JP Morgan – Eye on the Market.
  • Eye on the Market itself is a great resource especially during the outbreak. Full of high frequency economic indicators.
  • This chart shows COVID infection trends (the colours) for each country but charted by percentage of world GDP.
  • One month ago nearly 50% of global GDP saw a rising COVID outbreak.
  • The picture is a lot better now as the red/orange are receding.
  • It turned in late March – around the time the market bottomed.

Tools

Third Point Q1 2020

  • Q1 letters in general are going to be very interesting to read.
  • Here is the latest letter for Q1 2020 from Third Point Capital.
  • Loeb’s fund is -16% in Q1.
  • They seem to have moved positions around a lot in March – mainly buying corporate credit exposure.
  • Lots of interesting stuff inside including a rant about socialising credit via Fed intervention.
Tools

Tracking Retail Money

  • Robinhood is the popular (read free) though glitchy trading app.
  • Robintrack is a service that tracks the number of Robinhood users that hold a particular stock over time against the share price.
  • Pictured below are the shares of Carnival Cruises, which have collapsed due to coronavirus. Yet retail investors have been buying.
  • Something similar but less informative exists for the UK – Top of the Stocks at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Tools

Investment quotes

  • Great list of famous investment quotes.
  • “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” Paul Samuelson.
  • “If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.” Adam Smith.
  • “Fear incites human action far more urgently than does the impressive weight of historical evidence.” Jeremy Siegel.
Tools

The Feynman Technique for Learning

  • With a lot of spare time many are turning to learning new things.
  • This brings to mind the Feynman Technique for learning.
  • Four steps:
  • Choose a concept you want to learn about.
  • Pretend you are teaching it to a student in grade 6.
  • Identify gaps in your explanation;  Go back to the source material, to better understand it.
  • Review and simplify (optional).
Tools

Asking Questions?

  • This is a great read on how to ask good questions and why that is so important.
  • “Nobel-prize winner, physicist Arno Penzias, when asked what accounted for his success, replied,“I went for the jugular question.”
  • Still practicing his questioning discipline today, Penzias recently commented at a Fast Company Conference, “Change starts with the individual. So the first thing I do each morning is ask myself, ‘Why do I strongly believe what I believe?’ Constantly examine your own assumptions.”

Snippet Recommends Tools

The Browser

  • As an investor one needs to read broadly.
  • One of the best resources out there is The Browser.
  • They curate all the interesting articles on the internet on a huge range of topics and send it in a daily email.
  • They would know – their editor reads 1,000 per day!
  • It isn’t free but the best money you will spend.
  • Use Pocket to save them to read later.
Tools

2019 Internet Trend Report

  • Mary Meeker’s latest Internet Trends Report is, as always, interesting.
  • It is a treasure trove of information to do with Internet and Media.
  • For example this chart showing that in the US the amount of time spent on mobile surpassed time spent watching TV.
  • More snippets to follow but the whole report is worth a flick.
Tools

Hoisington Latest

  • Always worth reading the analysis of this bond management house.
  • This is the latest report.
  • Chart from Haver Analytics supports their arguments on subdued inflation.
  • These five factors – loss of momentum, monetary restraint, high debt levels, flat profits and excess capacity – will bring about slower growth and continue to subdue core inflation.
  • Over the past 65 years, yields on long dated risk-free U.S. treasury securities moved in the same direction as core inflation on an annual basis roughly 80% of the time. We believe that there is a high probability that this relationship will hold in 2020 as inflationary pressures continue to subside.
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