Podcast Business and Spotify

  • Podcast advertising leads to pretty good returns for brands.
  • After conducting a study with 250 advertisers and marketers, it says two-thirds (67%) of podcast ad buyers say that every $1 spent on podcasts returns between $4 and $6 for their brands.
  • Yet SPOT is struggling to capture this – why?
  • This blog post covers a lot of reasons. For example:
  • “[What’s] most misunderstood about Spotify is Spotify doesn’t get to monetize all the podcast content that they have. So in the most recent quarterly earnings report, they say that they had 5 million podcasts on their platform, but 99.9% of those podcasts, Spotify does not get to monetize.

Tesla Production System

  • Engineers at Tesla Inc. have developed a new process that they claim will reduce EV production costs by 50 percent, while reducing factory space by 40 percent.
  • The so-called “unboxed” system – “focuses on eliminating linear assembly lines and producing more subassemblies out of large castings“.
  • That is a remarkable goal, and huge if achieved.

Unintended Effects – Obesity Drugs

  • Obesity drugs have now been clinically proven to reduce body weight by 15% or more in some people.
  • This could have profound second-order effects that are worth thinking about.
  • This Guardian article is a good start.
  • One such effect comes from the drugs themselves – anecdotally they seem to suppress addictive behaviours.
  • Another is a boon for minimally-invasive skin tightening devices (if you want to read full transcript two-week free trial here).
  • This interview with the scientists that originally investigated GLP-1 is also interesting to read – especially the point that repulsion to food might reduce these drugs’ long-term use.

Patient Capital with High Active Share

  • High active share – where portfolios differ markedly from the benchmark – does well (+2% pa outperformance) but only if holding periods are over two years.
  • So having high active share isn’t enough if the fund trades a lot.
  • Being patient isn’t enough – as those with low active share do worse.
  • Full paper here.

Understanding AI

  • Economics says change happens in the adjustment of prices and relative prices.
  • Thanks to GPT, every programmer has the potential to be 10x more productive than the baseline from just 2 years ago.”
  • This means:
  • (1) The data-software combined price is collapsing opening enormous “volume growth”.
  • (2) Within it the relative value of software vs. data, especially unique data sets, is changing in the benefit of the latter (Media companies?).
  • (3) New scarcity is arising – likely in hardware and energy.
  • Full article here.
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