It didn’t start with the Inflation Reduction Act or Trump.
It started as early as 2008, and took the form, as this article identifies, of four key forces.
Things in global trade wars move slowly.
“If this analysis is correct, it should be clear that the American protectionist turn has been taken for a long time and will last long, as one doesn’t see the main forces that provoked it changing direction, starting with the desire to push China back.“
Studying these global balances helps understand and predict where the stresses of financial systems build.
To this end, Brad’s re-opening post from November 2022 is a foundational read.
The short summary – deficits are back to pre-GFC highs, have concentrated in autocratic regime countries but with none of the historic reserve growth.
Prescient conclusion – “By implication, private financial intermediaries somewhere around the world will need to absorb Treasury bonds. Just as financial intermediaries globally had to absorb U.S. “subprime” (household) risk prior to the global crisis, now they have to absorb U.S. interest rate risk.”
“Just between 2000 and 2021, the share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt of low and lower-middle income countries (other than that held by IFIs) owed to bondholders jumped from 10 to 50 percent, while the share owed to China rose from 1 to 15 percent. Meanwhile, the share held by the 22 predominantly Western members of the Paris Club of official lenders fell from 55 to 18 per cent. Thus, co-ordinating creditors in a comprehensive debt restructuring operation has become far harder, because of their greater number and their diversity.“
One of the most useful tools in a healthcare investor’s arsenal is medical conferences.
Why? Key opinion leaders (KOLs) meet to discuss the latest data coming out from company-sponsored trials and research. Their views give an unrivaled and direct insight not just into the probability of success but also the commercial potential of various medical interventions.
One way to get a quick overview is summary quotes captured by the Stream blog like this summary of ACC ’23.
NB If you want to have free two-week trial access to the full database of transcripts click here.
Conversation between Tyler Cowen and Yasheng Huang on China.
Wide ranging and in-depth, especially understanding the cultural, historic and sociological drivers that help understand China and turbulence ahead.
“One reason is the charisma power of individual leaders, Mao and Xiaoping … they could do whatever they wanted while being able to contain the spillover effects of their mistakes. The big uncertain issue now is whether Xi Jinping has that kind of charisma to contain future spillover effects of succession failure.”
“This is a remarkable statistic: Since 1976, there have been six leaders of the CCP. Of these six leaders, five of them were managed either by Mao or by Deng Xiaoping. Essentially, the vast majority of the successions were handled by these two giants who had oversized charisma, oversized prestige, and unshakeable political capital”.
Also a super interesting discussion on “why Chinese and Chinese Americans have done less well becoming top CEOs of American companies compared to Indians and Indian Americans”.
Much has changed since then, but this behind-the-scenes Vanity Fair article shines a bright light on the corporate behemoth Arnault and his tactics, as he pursued Gucci in 1999.
