- Looks like a step change – should be positive for active management.
- Source: Blackrock.
Inequality Narrative Violation
- “The world is growing more equal than it has been for over 100 years.“
- That might surprise many.
- Source.
Algorithms and AI
- AI is now being applied to finding better computer science algorithms.
- For example, Deepmind just cracked making a better sorting algorithm.
- This is a big deal. Why?
- “They underpin everything from ranking online search results and social posts to how data is processed on computers and phones.“
Unintended Effects – Obesity Drugs
- Obesity drugs have now been clinically proven to reduce body weight by 15% or more in some people.
- This could have profound second-order effects that are worth thinking about.
- This Guardian article is a good start.
- One such effect comes from the drugs themselves – anecdotally they seem to suppress addictive behaviours.
- Another is a boon for minimally-invasive skin tightening devices (if you want to read full transcript two-week free trial here).
- This interview with the scientists that originally investigated GLP-1 is also interesting to read – especially the point that repulsion to food might reduce these drugs’ long-term use.
IRS Auditing Returns
- On average the IRS makes 2x return on audits.
- However, this varies greatly by income.
- Source.
Home Size
- After a short-term rise during the pandemic, the average size of single-family homes in the US is declining again.
- Source.
Patient Capital with High Active Share
- High active share – where portfolios differ markedly from the benchmark – does well (+2% pa outperformance) but only if holding periods are over two years.
- So having high active share isn’t enough if the fund trades a lot.
- Being patient isn’t enough – as those with low active share do worse.
- Full paper here.
Understanding AI
- Economics says change happens in the adjustment of prices and relative prices.
- “Thanks to GPT, every programmer has the potential to be 10x more productive than the baseline from just 2 years ago.”
- This means:
- (1) The data-software combined price is collapsing opening enormous “volume growth”.
- (2) Within it the relative value of software vs. data, especially unique data sets, is changing in the benefit of the latter (Media companies?).
- (3) New scarcity is arising – likely in hardware and energy.
- Full article here.
Solar vs Oil Capex
- “In 2023, for the first time, investment in solar energy is expected to beat out investment in oil production. It’s a stark difference from what the picture looked like a decade ago, when oil spending outpaced solar spending by nearly six to one.”
- Source.
New Home Sales and Recessions
Ship Sulphur Emissions and Unintended Consequences
- From 1st of Jan 2020 ships had to reduce the amount of sulfur in shipping fuels from 3.5% to 0.5%.
- Although intended to reduce pollution, all that sulfur was reflecting solar radiation from the surface of the ocean.
- With it gone, the part of the ocean dominated by shipping lanes is starting to heat up.
- Source.
Concentration Risks
- This chart “shows the average annualized outperformance of stocks after they’ve become one of the largest top 10 in the S&P 500.”
- “As you can see, the top 10 largest companies underperform by an average of -1.5% over the subsequent 10 years.”
- Source.
Panama Canal
- Unprecedented drought in the Panama Canal is forcing some ships to offload 40% of their cargo.
- It takes 200m liters of water per ship, that is pumped from Gatun lake.
- Last year we had drought issues in the Rhine.
- The coming El Niño weather pattern could lead to more issues for global transport supply chains.
- Chart source: Tema ETFs.
Japanese Market
Collection Rate of Employment Stats
- Response rates to the important payroll survey are well below the historic median.
- This usually leads to revisions.
Job Openings to Unemployed Workers
- Far from concerning levels.
- Also, see Exhibit 3 in the Source for a pent-up source of labour demand.
- Source.
ESG bifurcation
- Chart showing pension assets by states enacting pro and anti-ESG legislation.
- 18 states, representing $3.1tn of assets are encouraging ESG.
- 27 states, representing $1.9tn of assets are opposing it.
- Source: Moody’s h/t Duncan Lamont.
Childhoods of Exceptional People
- Can we draw any conclusions from the childhoods of exceptional people?
- This long essay attempts to do just that.
- Naturally, this sort of analysis is anecdotal but in many ways interesting.
Tesla and Service
- Interesting analysis of Tesla’s purported business model compared to other automotive manufacturers – make cars that don’t break vs. the razor/razor blade (i.e. zero margin cars with high margin service and parts) typically adopted by others.
- “Tesla does not have an existing fleet and that the auto industry, the reason incumbents succeed and newcomers fail, the biggest reason is that the incumbents have a large fleet, and they’re able to sell new cars at close to 0 margin and then sell spare parts at a very high margin, sort of razors and blades type thing.“
- NB to access all the transcripts you can try Stream for free for two weeks.
Reddit Search
- A useful tool to search Reddit for information.