Cardboard Demand Plummets

  • Demand and output for cardboard boxes and other packaging material fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022“.
  • the most severe quarterly decline since the Great Financial Crisis (2Q09).
  • Operating rates have fallen as a result leaving 20% of capacity idle. Excess inventory (which has fallen) remains high.
  • To Josephson, the end of 2022 in the packaging world had “echoes of the Great Financial Crisis everywhere one looks,” he wrote in the Sunday note“.
  • Source (h/t).

RISC-V

  • RISC-V, the royalty-free open-source instruction set architecture, is worth keeping an eye on especially as Arm convulses its way back to the stock market.
  • The December 2022 summit (and this great write-up) offered a deep feel of the status of RISC-V.
  • Bold statements abounded – “It’s really important that you get this. RISC-V is inevitable. RISC-V is going to have the best processors. And RISC-V is going to have the best ecosystem.

Off-Exchange ETP Trading

  • 2022 saw a new record in off-exchange trading of US ETFs.
  • Part of a broader trend where trading off-exchange in US equities went from 35% in 2015 to 43% last year.
  • Yet, as the FT Alphaville article notes, “ETF shift from lit to off-exchange trading has actually been even starker than it has for equities as a whole“.

Most Successful Film of All Time?

  • Films often get measured by gross box office, with Avatar (both of them) reigning supreme on this measure.
  • However, using a measure of return on investment (percentage of budget recovered) throws up an alternative perspective.
  • Winners on this measure are E.T. (7,552%) but also films like “The King’s Speech (2,849%), Home Alone (2,648%), and breakout sleepers like Crocodile Dundee (3,282%), Slumdog Millionaire (2,523%) and … er, Black Swan?
  • Source.

IRF’s The Cut

  • Most will agree sell-side research is broken and biased, and to get real insight investors need to seek out independent research providers.
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Homo Silicus

  • Interesting use case of GPT3 – to model economic agents – as was done in this paper.
  • These models can be used the same way economists use homo economicus: they can be given endowments, put in scenarios and then their behavior can be explored—though in the case of homo silicus, through computational simulation, not a mathematical deduction
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