IRF’s The Cut is a fortnightly publication highlighting the latest original and thought-provoking research from a selection of high-quality and differentiated Research Providers.
Interesting use case of GPT3 – to model economic agents – as was done in this paper.
“These models can be used the same way economists use homo economicus: they can be given endowments, put in scenarios and then their behavior can be explored—though in the case of homo silicus, through computational simulation, not a mathematical deduction“
“As shown below, in the history of US recessions (with the exception of the dot-com collapse of 2001), equity markets bottomed well before the bottom in GDP, payrolls, S&P 500 earnings and housing starts and the peak in household/corporate delinquencies. The ISM survey has been the most reliable coincident indicator of a bottom in equities“.
“Direct-to-consumer brands moved 20–30% of their marketing dollars in Q4 2022 from Meta to Amazon due to the former’s declining performance metrics for ads. The shift occurred despite a recent reluctance from DTC brand to sell products on Amazon because of limited access to and ownership of sales and customer data—but now that brands are receiving only $2 back for every $1 spent on Meta ads (they used to get $8 back), they are more willing to work with the e-commerce giant. According to Advantage Unified Commerce, an estimated 75% of brands report customer acquisition is cheaper on Amazon than other media channels.”
