SPAC Returns

  • JPM analysed 98 SPAC deals that closed or liquidated from Jan 2019 to March 2021.
  • It isn’t a pretty picture – “while SPAC sponsors and “SPAC Arbitrage” investors are still making money, it’s an unsightly picture for everyone else in the SPAC ecosystem“.
  • Things didn’t get any better for the 85 SPAC mergers since March 2021 – the same patterns hold.
  • This was a great post looking at the crazy things going on recently in the SPAC world.

Pixar

  • George Lucas was forced to sell Pixar to fund his divorce.
  • Venture capitalists, 35 of them, refused to back the firm as did eight strategic partners, but Steve Jobs agreed.
  • If we’d had any other investor than Steve, we would have been dead in the water.
  • He forced the firm to succeed “He’d berate those of us in management, then write another check”
  • Pixar was eventually sold for $7bn to Disney “This is astounding considering they could have had us for free in the 1970s when we approached them on bended knee.” 
  • The real story of Pixar – a fascinating read.

Dell

  • Splitting a good black jack hand” is a great way to describe how Michael Dell pulled off perhaps the most daring deal of the last decade.
  • Before the LBO, he owned 15.6% of his company, shares worth less than $4 billion. Thanks to the miracles of his financial engineering, he will own 52% of Dell and a 42% stake in VMware. The total value of his Dell holdings is $40 billion.
  • A really great article from Forbes.

Online Platforms are Bad for News

  • Craigslist, the world’s largest classified ads platform, was rolled out in a staggered fashion from 1995 to 2009.
  • This created the perfect testing ground for its impact on 1,500 US daily newspapers.
  • Researchers found that:
  • As one would expect local newspapers reduced staff by 6% (14% for those that relied more heavily on classified ads).
  • There was also a sharp decline in circulation which isn’t made up by other sources of news consumption.
  • Most fascinating though, there was a significant decline in political content of newspapers (see chart) while things like sport, entertainment and crime didn’t change.
  • This has very stark implications discussed in the link.

Music Streaming Market

  • There are 487m music streaming subscribers globally at Q1 2021.
  • Emerging markets are now central to this market accounting for 60% of all 2020 subscriber growth.
  • Spotify is still the leader with 32% but has lost two points of market share since Q1 2020.
  • Google’s Youtube Music has been the standout story – “The early signs are that YouTube Music is becoming to Gen Z what Spotify was to Millennials half a decade ago.
  • Source.

More is Less

  • The number of words in a 10-K report has been climbing over time.
  • 10-Ks are also using more redundant, boilerplate (used in 75% of other 10-Ks) and sticky words (repeated from prior year).
  • They are also getting less readable (compared to academic texts (COCA) and newspapers).
  • A lot of this has to do with growing SEC requirements (especially around risk factors, internal controls and fair value measurement).
  • Source: Great post on the topic worth a full read.

Peter Davies of Lansdowne

  • A really great and rare podcast with the legendary investor.
  • His points on how to frame buy and sell decisions are particularly good.
  • As is his view of the UK needing capital to unlock the world-class IP historically generated there and give people ambition to build global platforms instead of solving individual problems.
  • Finally, his advice to young people about enthusiasm really rings true.
  • This was a good summary of other points by a former colleague, but the full thing is absolutely worth your time.

Grocery Delivery Sales

  • Grocery delivery did extremely well during the pandemic.
  • Walmart dominated pre-pandemic but the first few months of lockdowns its market share was eclipsed by Instacart.
  • As of June 2021 it is back in the lead with 48% share while Instacart has 45%.
  • Overall online grocery sales peaked in January 2021 and volumes are down 24% to June 2021 (which is -3% YoY).
  • NB Amazon is excluded.
  • Source.

EV Maintenance Costs

  • The US government estimate of fleet maintenance costs found that battery-electric vehicles (BEV) have about 40% lower cost when compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV).
  • Hybrids (HEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) also save money.
  • NB this 4c per mile difference across the nearly 2 billion miles federal government vehicles covered in 2019 equates to $78 million a year in savings, and that doesn’t account for fuel costs.

Right to Repair

  • FTC has voted unanimously to enforce laws around Right to repair.
  • There is a big movement towards this – supported by Biden’s broad executive order – to put the power to repair everything from electronics to tractors to cars back in the hands of consumers.
  • This could be a big issue across the board for companies like Deere, Apple etc. who all make high margins on after market servicing and repairs of their original products.
  • The full FTC report on the matter is worth a flick.
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