Interesting ideas

  • This is a great list of interesting ideas, from a wide range of fields, to understand how the world works.
  • Some examples.
  • Principle of Least Effort: When seeking information, effort declines as soon as the minimum acceptable result is reached.
  • The 90-9-1 Rule: In social media networks, 90% of users just read content, 9% of users contribute a little content, and 1% of users contribute almost all the content. Gives a false impression of what ideas are popular or “average.”
  • Bizarreness Effect: Crazy things are easier to remember than common things, providing a distorted sense of “normal.”
  • Second Half of the Chessboard: Put one grain of rice on the first chessboard square, two on the next, four on the next, then eight, then sixteen, etc, doubling the amount of rice on each square. When you’ve covered half the chessboard’s squares you’re dealing with an amount of rice that can fit in your lap; in the second half you quickly get to a pile that will consume an entire city. That’s how compounding works: slowly, then ferociously.

Covid Drug Development

  • Clinicaltrials.gov counts 104 active studies in the US.
  • There is also SOLIDARITY, a WHO megatrial announced on Friday.
  • Drugs in Clinical Trials:
  • Chloroquine (Plaquenil) – 70 year old treatment for malaria repurposed. Only small open label trials done so far (here, here and here) show encouraging early results.
  • Siltuximab, Sarilumab and Tocilizumab – all IL-6 inhibitors (for anti-inflammatory conditions) repurposed and being clinically tested.
  • Remdesivir – previously tested for other viruses including Ebola. Two phase III studies initiated.
  • Ritonavir/lopinavir – HIV medication repurposed. Although initial trial failed.
  • Drugs in Pre-Clinical Development:
  • Regeneron – are using their novel antibody discovery technology to find a cocktail of antibodies.
  • TAK-888 – a hyperimmune globulin that has previously shown benefit in severe acute viral respiratory infections.
  • RNAi – Alnylam are using siRNA technology pre-clinic to find a candidate.
  • WP1122 – Moleculin Biotech are testing a glucose decoy prodrug.
  • Vaccines:
  • 39 in development, 12-18 months away, full list here.

Dealer Inventory (repost)

  • US Bonds outstanding continues to grow.
  • However, inventory of bonds at primary dealers has stayed low since the financial crisis.
  • This doesn’t however capture turnover of inventory – which has risen.
  • Overall this still creates a very risky situation in terms of liquidity.
  • Especially problematic now that Bond ETFs have hit $1 trillion.

Sucralose

  • A recent study has some negative conclusions for the artificial sweetener Sucralose.
  • They found that Sucralose + carbohydrates in healthy people can lead to glucose intolerance increasing risk of diabetes.
  • This is negative for Tate & Lyle.
  • Word of caution – the study had only 60 participants and didn’t control for other food intake during the investigation period.
  • Artificial sweeteners have been seeing a lot of negative research.
  • This is an interesting start-up that instead of making artificial sweeteners is developing a new delivery mechanism for sugar.
  • It has the same taste but 40% less sugar is needed
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