Business Cycle Indicators

  • Interestingly freight data in the US continues to be weak.
  • Both the shipments and expenditures components of the Cass Freight Index marked their lowest reading of 2019 and took another step backwards in terms of y/y growth. There is lots of hope in the stock market and the freight market for a better 2020, but the trends have yet to turn.”
  • Source.

Artificial Intelligence

  • Fantastic resource for anyone interested in AI.
  • Especially worth checking out AI Index which has an absolute treasure trove of data (and makes it available via Google drive) on all aspects of AI.
  • The improvement in capabilities (see analysis and charts in the report) are exponential.
  • AI really has exploded on the scene – the chart shows attendance at big AI conferences. Notice the cyclicality though …

Hoisington Latest

  • Always worth reading the analysis of this bond management house.
  • This is the latest report.
  • Chart from Haver Analytics supports their arguments on subdued inflation.
  • These five factors – loss of momentum, monetary restraint, high debt levels, flat profits and excess capacity – will bring about slower growth and continue to subdue core inflation.
  • Over the past 65 years, yields on long dated risk-free U.S. treasury securities moved in the same direction as core inflation on an annual basis roughly 80% of the time. We believe that there is a high probability that this relationship will hold in 2020 as inflationary pressures continue to subside.

Leading Indicator

  • South Korea, an export focussed high tech economy, tends to be very economically sensitive.
  • This means it is a good leading indicator in terms of companies around the world.
  • This chart shows just that – it correlates exports from Korea and Global earnings per share (EPS).
  • The trend has turned more positive.

Electric Cars

  • Interesting piece from FTAlphaville on the carbon impact of electric vehicles.
  • First a staggering chart from VW – because battery production is so energy intensive it takes their new e-Golf 120,000 km of driving to breakeven in terms of carbon emissions vs. a diesel Golf.
  • This does depend on where the electricity used to charge comes from (VW address this) and ignores other gas emissions.
  • Some analysts suggest that because battery technology is yet to improve the best impact on CO2 emissions is to drive a hybrid.
  • Food for thought.

Genetic Diversity

  • We all know about the cost of inbreeding.
  • As a result it is generally accepted that species should outbreed as much as possible – but did you know there is a cost of outbreeding as well?
  • To produce healthy children, you should marry a third or fourth cousin. Farther out, the genetic costs of outbreeding begin to outweigh those of inbreeding. That was what a cohort study found in examining Icelanders born between 1800 and 1964. Fertility was lower if the woman’s husband was either closer in or farther out (Helgason et al. 2008).

Research Spending

  • Science and Research are a very long term game.
  • This is a striking chart from Nature using data assembled by the National Science Foundation.
  • It shows that China is rapidly closing the gap on the US in terms of science spending.
  • Preliminary data from 2019 suggest that China has already surpassed the United States in R&D spending

Animals

  • Amazing article on the human impact on animals.
  • We breed and kill at least 100 billion animals per year for food and at least 115 million per year for research. Fishing kills 1-3 trillion animals per year. Deforestation destroys animal habitats. Leaf blowers and light pollution kill insects. Building and vehicle collisions kill at least a billion animals per year. This year, more than 300 birds were injured or killed in collisions with a building in North Carolina in a single night.

Biotech

  • Biotech investors take note – Eli Lilly are out for deals.
  • Eli Lilly and Co aims to announce roughly one $1 billion to $5 billion deal every quarter in 2020, its chief financial officer told Reuters, as the U.S. drugmaker looks to build up its pipeline of future products.
  • It will focus largely on earlier stage opportunities across key therapeutic areas including oncology, pain, immunology, and neurology

Very Long Term Real Rates

  • Bank of England have done a big long term study of real interest rates.
  • Paints a picture of ‘suprasecular‘ decline.
  • Against their long‑term context, currently depressed sovereign real rates are in fact converging ‘back to historical trend’ — a trend that makes narratives about a ‘secular stagnation’ environment entirely misleading, and suggests that — irrespective of particular monetary and fiscal responses — real rates could soon enter permanently negative territory.

Drug Pricing

  • Pharma companies are starting to really come into their own with introducing innovative ways of pricing.
  • Alnylam only charges the $575k price for givosiran if the effect seen is on par with clinical trials.
  • Novartis now collects the $2.1m price tag for Zolgensma over 5 years.
  • Sanofi are offering $99/month subscriptions for insulin.
  • Pricing is a big issue for US Pharmaceuticals. There are start-ups looking at this issue as well – Generics 2.0.
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