Wang Huning

  • Must read profile of Wang Huning.
  • A member of the CCP’s seven-man Politburo Standing Committee, he is China’s top ideological theorist, quietly credited as being the “ideas man” behind each of Xi’s signature political concepts, including the “China Dream,” the anti-corruption campaign, the Belt and Road Initiative, a more assertive foreign policy, and even “Xi Jinping Thought.”
  • Wang Huning is arguably the single most influential “public intellectual” alive today.

China Tech Regulation

  • China’s anti-monopoly laws were first passed in 2007, almost a century after the US Sherman Act of 1890, the Clayton Act of 1914 and the Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. It’s also worth noting that Alibaba was founded in 1999, Tencent in 1998 and Baidu in 2000 — all ahead of anti-monopoly laws. Laws themselves also aren’t enough, and the State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) was established in April 2018 with holistic coverage to enforce the legislation.”
  • Great article on what to make of the regulatory crackdown drama going on in Chinese tech – from education firms being forced to go non-profit to the botched listing of cab-hailing firm Didi.

Commodity Supercycle

  • There is a lot of talk about a new commodity supercycle.
  • This chart suggest it might be ending before it starts – remember China is the largest consumer of most commodities.
  • After the boom decade a lot of this consumption is driven by the mini leverage and de-leverage cycles in China – summarised by a credit impulse.
  • The latest measure of this credit impulse is turning down, which leads commodity prices by 12 months.
  • h/t The Market Ear.

Taiwan

  • An investigation by Reuters suggests China is using “gray-zone” warfare to subdue Taiwan via military exhaustion.
  • The risk of conflict is now at its highest level in decades. PLA aircraft are flying menacingly towards airspace around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes launching multiple sorties on the same day. Since mid-September, Chinese warplanes have flown more than 100 of these missions, according to a Reuters compilation of flight data drawn from official statements by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.” 
  • Something to watch carefully.

Healthcare in China

  • “To say that healthcare in China is a growth story is an understatement: despite the country’s per capita spending growing at 16% p.a. over the past 18 years, it is still only 1/7th that of the UK and1/17th that of the US.
  • Consider the country’s changing demographics: in 1970, the median age was 19 years; today that figure is 38, and by 2040 it is projected to be 47.
  • As people age, they tend to experience more ailments, which require more (and costlier) treatments: according to Bernstein, Americans aged 25 or younger use five prescriptions per year, while those aged 65 or older use a whopping 46 scripts!
  • Source.

Emerging Markets

  • China has over time displaced the weight of vulnerable economies in the Emerging Markets (EM) Index, the latter itself falling due to improving macroeconomic fundamentals.
  • * Vulnerable economies are defined as countries with poor external balances and reliant on foreign savings. Vulnerable countries are South Africa, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Egypt, and Pakistan.
  • Sourced from GMO, read on for more reasons to own EM.
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