“The S&P 500’s total concentration, which we can measure using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (or HHI), is equivalent today to that of an equal-weighted, 59-stock portfolio. Ten years ago, the index was more than twice as diversified. We have never seen – over any 10-year period – a decline (or increase) in diversification of the magnitude we have just witnessed.“
Let this sink in – “Of the US firms listed in 1900, some 80% of their value was in industries that are small or extinct today; the UK figure is 65%“
Many of these industries have simply moved to lower-cost countries.
“Yet similarities between 1900 and 2024 are also apparent. The banking and insurance industries continue to be important. Similarly, such industries as food, beverages (including alcohol), tobacco, and utilities were present in 1900 and continue to be represented today. In the UK, quoted mining companies were important in 1900 just as they are in London today“
“Inflation is probably the most predictable of the regime frameworks, in terms of the magnitude of returns and the persistence of direction. If you are only allowed to use one economic datapoint to guide your decisions, US headline CPI should be it.“
Equity bull markets are 80% of history. Don’t forget the simple lessons…
Man group’s team tries to study whether investment regimes exist and whether one can profit from them.
If you split it up into insiders (financial/corporate) and outsiders (everyone else), the former ownership peaked at 70% during the bubble years and has come down to 20%.
“The rate of small business job growth has slowed in 17 of the last 20 months, falling from the record high of 101.33 in February 2022 to 98.77 in October 2023.“
Bill Gurley’s September 2023 talk “2,851 Miles.” is a very interesting read on this very important topic in economics and investing.
As a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit.” I like to say, “Regulation is the friend of the incumbent.”
