Big Tech Regulation

  • Good analysis of the bill proposed in Congress on regulating Big Tech.
  • The bill tries to restrict a lot of activity that is seen as anti-competitive behaviour on platforms.
  • It is also aimed at breaking up the businesses, making data easily portable, and acquisitions harder.
  • Taken together, these laws would be a revolution in antitrust law, adapted for an era where Big Tech marketplaces, not railroads, are the dominant businesses of the day. They could also have many serious unintended side effects, so the final form of these laws matters a lot.” 

Taiwan

  • An investigation by Reuters suggests China is using “gray-zone” warfare to subdue Taiwan via military exhaustion.
  • The risk of conflict is now at its highest level in decades. PLA aircraft are flying menacingly towards airspace around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes launching multiple sorties on the same day. Since mid-September, Chinese warplanes have flown more than 100 of these missions, according to a Reuters compilation of flight data drawn from official statements by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.” 
  • Something to watch carefully.

US Elections

  • Predicting the outcome of US elections is difficult.
  • This is a model that is forecasting a 91% chance of a Trump victory.
  • The model has a good hit rate – “Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
  • It is also dismissive of early polls, which currently give Biden a 9 percentage point lead, as seen in this chart – “The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall. The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners.
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