Marketplace Pulse Year In Review

  • Want a guide to what happened in the world of ecommerce in 2024? Read here.
  • The most fascinating development continues to be a move from made in China, to sold by China to now, with the rise of Temu and Shein, promoted by China.
  • Retail media has taken over from traditional TV in terms of advertising dollars.

Is AI Progress Accelerating?

  • OpenAI’s new o3 system – trained on the ARC-AGI-1 Public Training set – has scored a breakthrough 75.7% on the Semi-Private Evaluation set at our stated public leaderboard $10k compute limit. A high-compute (172x) o3 configuration scored 87.5%.
  • This is a surprising and important step-function increase in AI capabilities, showing novel task adaptation ability never seen before in the GPT-family models. For context, ARC-AGI-1 took 4 years to go from 0% with GPT-3 in 2020 to 5% in 2024 with GPT-4o. All intuition about AI capabilities will need to get updated for o3.
  • Source.

The Concrete Impact of AI

  • In the US there are 5,000 data centers today, with 450 being added every year to 2030.
  • Data centers need a lot of concrete, more so due to AI’s need for bigger servers.
  • This concrete causes a lot of emissions, throwing a spanner in big tech emission targets, and leading to high demand for so-called green concrete.

You don’t Own Anything

  • The transformation of technology to the -as-a-service model has led to many positives, yet it has led to a situation where users don’t own anything.
  • This creates vulnerabilities – “years ago websites were made of files; now they are made of dependencies.”
  • If the current trend of technology is sweeping us in a direction of “everything is amazing, but nothing is ours”, Technology that’s Actually Yours could be the next great counter-trend.

Is AI hype or Does it Work?

  • A few links/stats on the topic.
  • Github co-pilot in this study led to substantial savings (30-50% time saved or reduced in some tasks).
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast episode with the CIO of Goldman Sachs on the use of AI.
  • Good overview of current revenue run rate for gen AI products (chart).
  • A rather bullish tour of AI and semiconductors by Gavin Baker.
WordPress Cookie Notice by Real Cookie Banner