“In fact, flows have remained strongly positive into equities throughout the sell-off. As the chart shows, ARK Innovation ETF has suffered no net redemptions despite declining 71% in price since the peak. The ‘buy the dip’ mentality is alive and well.“
It may seem simple but often the main thing that makes stocks go up is defying the fade in forecasts.
This is true of mega-cap tech stocks.
Despite consistent forecast for deceleration they have maintained 20-30% growth for over a decade now.
NB solid line is actual revenue growth average for AMZN, AAPL, CRM, FB, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX and the dotted lines are average sell-side forward forecasts at those points in time.
Thoughtful analysis of the venture landscape given the current state of public markets from Redpoint ventures.
The background is – public high performing SaaS firm valuations have fallen below their 10 year average now (see chart).
Past public market corrections led to 10 quarters of decline in venture dollars invested of varying severity. The great recession, for example, saw a 30% fall.
“Currently many companies in private markets (particularly at late stage) are in “price discover” mode in fundraises with everyone trying to figure out market price – rounds are taking longer to get done and “willingness to pay” spreads are wide“
Meet levels.fyi – they collect actual like for like data on salaries, benefits, levels etc. for the US tech industry.
They use this to help people negotiate salaries (how they monetise).
Levels recently published a report for 2021 that has some fascinating data (h/t The Diff).
The table attached shows entry level engineer salaries.
Lots of other interesting stats – comp has been rising (generally highest entry-level salaries are growing +3.4% annualised since 2019) and the Bay Area still wins (40% higher than LA for example).
Google has been running an internal prediction market – Gleangen, and Astral Codex Ten has a great write up on the topic.
This is the second iteration of such a market (the first was called Prophit).
Google claims that anyone can now build a prediction market on Google Cloud.
Prediction markets are fascinating as a tool but have struggled to get really big and more importantly to solve the three key issues (real money, easy to use, easy to create own markets).
Metaculus is a community dedicated to making accurate predictions (they have a great resource page) as is Manifold. Neither use real money.
Kalshi is a new startup ($30m of funding) that is trying to make events into an asset class via a real money prediction market. As is Futuur.
Polymarket, the biggest such market in the US, was recently fined and forced to shut down in the US (it remains open elsewhere).
