Crossover Taking Over

  • Crossover investors have become more active in Europe (e.g. Tiger Global, BlackRock, RA Capital, Coatue).
  • While in 2019 only 2 made the top 15 investor league table, now, as at the half year, 4 of these (all from the US) are part of the top 15, with the number 1 overall being Tiger Global.
  • Source: Lazard.

Pixar

  • George Lucas was forced to sell Pixar to fund his divorce.
  • Venture capitalists, 35 of them, refused to back the firm as did eight strategic partners, but Steve Jobs agreed.
  • If we’d had any other investor than Steve, we would have been dead in the water.
  • He forced the firm to succeed “He’d berate those of us in management, then write another check”
  • Pixar was eventually sold for $7bn to Disney “This is astounding considering they could have had us for free in the 1970s when we approached them on bended knee.” 
  • The real story of Pixar – a fascinating read.

Unicorns

  • We analyzed over 2,600 seed-stage startup investments made on AngelList dating back to 2013 to determine the likelihood of any startup achieving unicorn status today.
  • The answer – 1 in 40 shot or 2.5%.
  • A 2018 study put that number at slightly more than 1%.
  • One reason for the increase is the pictured chart –  “The first quarter of 2021 was the “best quarter ever” for early-stage startups in terms of rates of markups and positive exits. Just over 85% of the events reported by startups on AngelList during that period were positive ones—an increase of 5% from just one quarter before.
  • Source.

US Venture Returns

  • VC managers have seen falling MOIC (multiple of invested capital) returns while IRRs, just like those in private equity buyout, have been rising.
  • This can be explained by use of subscription lines and faster distributions.
  • Notice the difference between median and average – VC tends to have some very high return/size funds.
  • Source.

Post and Pre IPO Value Creation

  • Who reaps the majority of the rewards from venture backed companies – VC or public markets?
  • Over the last decade when measured in terms of total dollars of value creation accruing to pre- and post-IPO investors: post-IPO investor gains have often been substantial.
  • Of the 165 IPOs analysed – the vast majority had a large share of value accrue to public markets (blue region).
  • There are some exceptions (red region), and some shared (yellow region).
  • Source.

Tiger Global

  • A fascinating read about Tiger Global’s innovative velocity focussed venture/growth strategy.
  • It can be summed up as follows:
    • Be (very) aggressive in pre-empting good tech businesses
    • Move (very) quickly through diligence & term sheet issuance
    • Pay (very) high prices relative to historical norms and/or competitors
    • Take a (very) lightweight approach to company involvement post-investment
    • Above all, deploy capital, deploy capital, deploy capital
  • It is disrupting venture investing and earning high returns in the process.

NBA and Start-Ups

  • Just as in tech companies, many sports franchises are trying to answer a basic question: what do the numbers today tell us about the possible outcomes of tomorrow — and what (or who) do we need to get to a winning outcome?
  • In basketball and tech in particular, a deeper understanding of efficiency — both in how to measure it and how to leverage that to build winning teams — and usage has changed the game in the last decade.
  • A great piece applying NBA sports metrics to Start-ups.

Airbnb

  • The stories of the early days of Airbnb, who recently filed to go public, are the stuff of legend including how the founders turned to selling themed cereal to survive.
  • The cereals were called “Obama O’s, the Cereal of Change,” and “Cap’n McCain’s, a Maverick in Every Box.” – a throwback to their first success housing delegates of the Democratic National Convention in 2008. It was also what got them a spot on Y Combinator.

Public to Private Equity

  • Over the past quarter century there has been a marked shift in U.S. equities from public markets to private markets controlled by buyout and venture capital firms. This change has had reverberations for asset managers, investors, executives, and policy makers.
  • A phenomenal and must read note from Mauboussin.

Bessemer Memos

  • Bessemer Venture Partners are famous for publishing their anti-portfolio.
  • Recently they took to learning from their success and published a series of memos from some of their most successful venture investments.
  • One pattern that consistently emerges is that Bessemer’s best investment decisions centered on people. In retrospect, the early products themselves are barely recognizable today. Rather, passionate, analytical and relentless founders zigged and zagged their way to that elusive “product-market fit”, and these memos provide a glimpse of those winning entrepreneurs before they were famous.

Marc Andreessen Interview

  • Brilliant interview with Marc Andreessen.
  • Full of insights on a multitude of topics.
  • On investing he says – “It’s really, really, really hard to be a good poker player. And if you’re kicking yourself every time you have a bad hand, the bad habits just simply happen. You just need to be able to have a system that lets you think through the process…
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