- A very handy tool that tracks strikes in China – both statistics and as a map.
- Latest monthly numbers have seen a spike.
- “Worker strikes have reached a new height after the pandemic,” Aidan Chau, a researcher at CLB, told Nikkei Asia. “Many protests are related to slowing demand in international trade.” (Nikkei Asia).
Macroeconomics
Snippets on the big picture.
German Political Risk
- The rise of the AfD (the right-wing populist party) in German polls has been remarkable.
- With elections looming in October 2025, this political risk will soon be on investor’s horizons.
- In this context, this interview with Wolfgang Munchau, former co-editor of FT Deutschland, is a must-read to understand the woes of Europe’s largest economy and how these reflect in politics.
- Interestingly he highlights another possible surprise on the left political spectrum – “there may soon be a party on the Left led by Sahra Wagenknecht, a very sort of maverick politician, who has left or who is on the verge of leaving the Left Party, who may be forming a new party of the Left. And that party was also on opinion polls at potentially 20% of the electorate.”
Insurance Hurting New Home Sales
- Rising cost and reduced availability of property insurance are starting to impact new home sales (according to survey of homebuilders) – especially in CA and FL.
- Source.
Bank Credit Conditions and HY Spreads
- Have, unusually, diverged – suggesting the latter should start to widen.
- Source.
Diesel Prices and CPI
- The great inflation period of the 1970s actually involved two major peaks as inflation rates were extremely variable.
- Could the same happen this time?
- Source: themarketear.
Unusual Decline in Net Interest Payments
- Despite the sharp rise in Fed Funds rate, company net interest payments have actually fallen.
- “We have concluded that a sizeable proportion of huge, fixed-rate borrowings during 2020/21 still survives on company balance sheets in variable rate deposits. Companies have effectively played the yield curve in reverse and become net beneficiaries of higher rates, adding 5% to profits over the last year instead of deducting 10%+ from profits as usual.”
- Source: Soc Gen (via themarketear).
Credit Card Delinquency Rates
- “Delinquency rates for credit card borrowers are approaching 2008 levels across all age categories.“
- Source.
Chinese Economic Surprise
- Time for a rebound?
- Source: Dailyshot.
Productivity
- Always surprising how, despite the venture-backed tech boom, productivity hasn’t increased.
- It will be interesting to see if AI starts to push this up.
- Source: Daily Shot.
Digital Prices are Falling
- “Online prices in June 2023 fell 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), the most significant decrease since May 2020“
- 11 out of 18 categories were down.
- The sharpest falls are seen in electronics, computers, and appliances.
- Source.
Chinese Deflation
- Could China be about to export deflation around the World?
- Source: DailyShot
Canadian Population Boom
- This really is an outstanding chart and has huge ramifications for the economy.
- Most of this is down to immigration.
- Source.
Home Size
- After a short-term rise during the pandemic, the average size of single-family homes in the US is declining again.
- Source.
New Home Sales and Recessions
Panama Canal
- Unprecedented drought in the Panama Canal is forcing some ships to offload 40% of their cargo.
- It takes 200m liters of water per ship, that is pumped from Gatun lake.
- Last year we had drought issues in the Rhine.
- The coming El Niño weather pattern could lead to more issues for global transport supply chains.
- Chart source: Tema ETFs.
Collection Rate of Employment Stats
- Response rates to the important payroll survey are well below the historic median.
- This usually leads to revisions.
Job Openings to Unemployed Workers
- Far from concerning levels.
- Also, see Exhibit 3 in the Source for a pent-up source of labour demand.
- Source.
Wage Growth by Income
- Wage growth is decelerating in the US, especially so for those in the highest income bracket.
Truflation
- This alternative measure of inflation has been falling for months – and currently sits at 2.86%, well below official measures.
Greece
- The Greek economy is doing rather well, and starting to peel away in terms of growth.
- Barclays, via FT Alphaville, argue it might be entering a third positive “megacycle”.
- This analysis agrees – “Greece is growing, investment is booming, employment prospects are improving, the number of businesses is moving up, salaries are increasing, and the country is becoming less poor, not more“.
