As the saying goes – the best cure for high prices is high prices.
According to GS this is now coming to battery metals (cobalt, lithium and nickel).
In other words, despite an exponential demand profile, the surge in prices is bringing on a huge supply response.
“We forecast all three metals to shift into sustained surplus over the next 1-2 years” (see chart).
“Lithium is the most prominent in this trend, where we expect supply growth to average just over 30% per year over 2022-25, reflecting the ramp-up of new projects in Australia, China and Chile in particular.”
Interesting argument by an ex FT/FTAV journalist, who has recently started her own newsletter, on why she didn’t chose Substack.
One thing that stood out is legal cover. “As it stands, Substack can shift the biggest risk and cost in all journalism — libel risk — onto the shoulders of individual authors.”
This ties in with news they have dropped their Series C round (at a valuation of $750m – $1bn).
The reason is likely down to the fact they made only $9m of revenue last year, suggesting even their previous valuation of $650m is too high.
The other thing is moderation – as any platform grows moderation becomes an issue, something other publishers have been quick to point out.
This was a fascinating read on why some technologies linger and hence have a much longer tail than the market often predicts.
The reason – “cultural forces create market demand even if supply is available more efficiently (even infinitely) elsewhere“. In some cases (not obviously just related to age) the perceived value actually increases.
Think about movie theaters surviving despite the rise of home cinema. Why? The social value of gathering at the movies.
Or enjoying the slow deliberate read of a newspaper.
Or the demand, sometimes sinister, for the near 5 million payphone calls made each year in the UK.
Decline is inevitable but not in all cases (booming vinyl sales for example).
Before shale took off oil to gas prices averaged 8 to 1 – close to their energy equivalence ratio.
Since 2013 this ratio has averaged 20 to 1.
Outside of North America the ratio is 3 to 1.
“In other words, US gas is priced at an energy-equivalent discount of 56% to world oil and a 77% discount to world gas. In our 35 years investing in global energy markets, we have never seen such a wide disparity.“
Source (including arguments on why it might revert).
Astral Codex Ten picks up on an expanded nootropics recommendation data set.
The results are in this table and show three things (1) addictive/illegal is preferred to safe (2) difficult but popular > chemicals (3) high tech > normal.
“Over the last 20 years, across four Presidents (two Republicans and two Democrats) we have had exactly one energy secretary with any real-world energy experience before they were brought into the President’s cabinet.“
Reid Hoffman used to ask – “What do you plan to do after you leave Linkedin” – brilliant as it acknowledges that people don’t stay in jobs forever and communicates a support for their vision of the future.
This one from Marginal Revolution is also great – “What are the open tabs in your browser right now?”
Great contrarian podcast about the future of music streaming with Economist Will Page.
“Page believes the music industry is transitioning from a “herbivore market” to a “carnivore” one. In other words, future growth will not come from brand-new customers — it’ll come from the streaming services eating into each other’s market share. Not only has subscriber counts possibly tapped out in Page’s opinion, but streaming services have also put a ceiling on revenues by charging only $9.99, a price that hasn’t budged in 20 years despite giant leaps in technology and music catalog size.”
“85% of energy usage comes from burning things” and “human civilisation is powered by combustion“
So starts this excellent post on the current state of affairs and how they are described by politicians and the media.
The first big point is electricity does not equal energy. Electricity is only roughly 20% of world energy use.
Therefore, renewables, a minor part of electricity generation, are only a slither of the much bigger energy pie.
This chart “hammers” the point home.
As does this – from individuals in the know – “a net-zero policy, actually implemented “would certainly be the most significant act of mass murder since the killings of one hundred million people by communist regimes in the twentieth century—and it would likely be far greater.”“
“The correlation between wage growth and inflation has declined over the recent decades and is currently near historic lows. It is notable, however, that this correlation has ticked up recently“
