Grocery Delivery Sales

  • Grocery delivery did extremely well during the pandemic.
  • Walmart dominated pre-pandemic but the first few months of lockdowns its market share was eclipsed by Instacart.
  • As of June 2021 it is back in the lead with 48% share while Instacart has 45%.
  • Overall online grocery sales peaked in January 2021 and volumes are down 24% to June 2021 (which is -3% YoY).
  • NB Amazon is excluded.
  • Source.

EV Maintenance Costs

  • The US government estimate of fleet maintenance costs found that battery-electric vehicles (BEV) have about 40% lower cost when compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV).
  • Hybrids (HEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) also save money.
  • NB this 4c per mile difference across the nearly 2 billion miles federal government vehicles covered in 2019 equates to $78 million a year in savings, and that doesn’t account for fuel costs.

Right to Repair

  • FTC has voted unanimously to enforce laws around Right to repair.
  • There is a big movement towards this – supported by Biden’s broad executive order – to put the power to repair everything from electronics to tractors to cars back in the hands of consumers.
  • This could be a big issue across the board for companies like Deere, Apple etc. who all make high margins on after market servicing and repairs of their original products.
  • The full FTC report on the matter is worth a flick.

Unicorns

  • We analyzed over 2,600 seed-stage startup investments made on AngelList dating back to 2013 to determine the likelihood of any startup achieving unicorn status today.
  • The answer – 1 in 40 shot or 2.5%.
  • A 2018 study put that number at slightly more than 1%.
  • One reason for the increase is the pictured chart –  “The first quarter of 2021 was the “best quarter ever” for early-stage startups in terms of rates of markups and positive exits. Just over 85% of the events reported by startups on AngelList during that period were positive ones—an increase of 5% from just one quarter before.
  • Source.

Peer to Peer Car Sharing

  • Turo, part owned by IAC, is the leading peer to peer car sharing company (think Airbnb for cars).
  • Turo has been gaining share – it has tripled from 2% in June 2019 to 6% in June 2021.
  • Still miles away from the top three rental firms (Enterprise 37%, Avis 31%, Hertz 26%).
  • Competition in the space is heating up with Uber unveiling their own rent-a-car service and Lyft partnering with SIXT for care rental.
  • Source.

Realtors Confidence Survey

  • June 2021 survey paints a less than perfect picture.
  • Several metrics indicate that demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong.
  • The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased from 77 in May 2021 to 71 (moderately strong conditions) in June 2021.”
  • On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, slightly lower than the average of 5 offers in last month’s survey.”
  • On top of this inventory (the most important variable for house prices) is starting to bottom seasonally.
  • h/t Calculated Risk.

China Tech Regulation

  • China’s anti-monopoly laws were first passed in 2007, almost a century after the US Sherman Act of 1890, the Clayton Act of 1914 and the Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. It’s also worth noting that Alibaba was founded in 1999, Tencent in 1998 and Baidu in 2000 — all ahead of anti-monopoly laws. Laws themselves also aren’t enough, and the State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) was established in April 2018 with holistic coverage to enforce the legislation.”
  • Great article on what to make of the regulatory crackdown drama going on in Chinese tech – from education firms being forced to go non-profit to the botched listing of cab-hailing firm Didi.
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