Coffee in China

  • “… the coffee consumption in China … now sits at less than four cups per year, per person, compared to 300 in the US, this is a huge opportunity Starbucks President on the latest Earnings Call.
  • No wonder Starbucks has 4,000 stores in China already with 1,000 more planned for 2020.
  • The word China was mentioned 52 times on the call …

Be careful with Indices

  • This is a great article which shows the danger of looking at the index level when arguing about valuation.
  • At index level Emerging Markets (EM) trade at 12x P/E vs. the US at 17x = attractive right?
  • If you dissect by sector the valuation difference is entirely in domestic focussed sectors (e.g. Financials) and mining/oil & gas.
  • Global facing sectors have very similar valuations.
  • So an investor in emerging markets is basically taking a bet that the former valuations will close … a very different proposition.
  • i.e. you need China Construction Bank to re-rate vs. Bank of America.

WeWork in London

  • WeWork impact is interesting.
  • Morgan Stanley (via FT Alphaville) point out a Savills report (here and here) – if WeWork walked away from every commitment they have in London Offices it would raise the months of supply from 12 to 18.5 (City) and 15 (West End).
  • This is below the 20 months considered over supply.

Short Positions (redux)

  • We previously told you about short positions disclosure.
  • You can actually find daily updated spreadsheets here for the UK.
  • In the file below we use pivot tables to look at short positions by:
  • Stock (Sheet: Pivot Table Company)
  • Fund manager (Sheet: Pivot Table Position Holder)
  • The latter could be helpful for interviews?
  • The table below shows top 10 shorts in September vs. now.
  • Only three names are the same.

Alcoholic Fizzy Water?

  • There is a fast growing market in the US for alcoholic or hard seltzer (i.e. fizzy water). Biggest brands are White Claw and Truly.
  • It is on trend for a health conscious younger demographic that has shunned beer.
  • So far this has been largely a US phenomenon but is likely to spread to the rest of the world.
  • The big brewers are waking up and bringing in their own brands.
  • Google search trends do suggest it was a summer phenomenon.

Asset Management

  • “Just over 20 years have passed since the publication of Mark Carhart’s landmark 1997 study on mutual funds.
  • Its conclusion—that the data did “not support the existence of skilled or informed mutual fund portfolio managers”—was the capstone of an academic literature, which began with Michael Jensen in 1968, that formed the conventional wisdom that active management does not create value for investors.
  • We review the literature on active mutual fund management since the publication of Carhart’s work to assess the extent to which current research still supports the conventional wisdom.
  • Our review of the most recent literature suggests that the conventional wisdom is too negative on the value of active management.
  • Full paper here.
  • Although fully disclosed this paper was supported by IIA Active Managers Council and hence might be biased.
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