- The two main US jobs surveys – the famous non-farm payrolls (establishment) and household survey – are broken.
- For one there is a stark difference in trajectory between the two.
- Response rates are also collapsing.
- “Totting it all up, ABN Amro finds that the gap between the two series is driven largely by underestimating immigration, and overestimating business births, and then definitions.“
Private Equity Net Cashflows
- PE funds have called far more capital than they have distributed, almost on par with what was seen during the GFC.
- This is a serious issue for LP liquidity.
- Source.
Coatue Deck 2024
- Latest deck with some interesting charts. Usual health warning.
Failure Mindset
“Perfection is impossible. In the 1526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches. Now, I have a question for you.
What percentage of points do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%.
In other words, even top-ranked tennis players win barely more than half of the points they play. When you lose every second point on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.
You teach yourself to think, okay, I double-faulted … it’s only a point. Okay, I came to the net, then I got passed again; it’s only a point. Even a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN’s top 10 playlist. That, too, is just a point.
And here’s why I’m telling you this. When you’re playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world, and it is. But when it’s behind you, It’s behind you. This mindset is really crucial because it frees you to fully commit to the next point and the next point after that, with intensity, clarity, and focus.
You want to become a master at overcoming hard moments. That is, to me, the sign of a champion. The best in the world are not the best because they win every point. It’s because they lose again and again and have learned how to deal with it. You accept it. Cry it out if you need to and force a smile.”
— Roger Federer (via FS).
US Defense Spending
- “Current U.S. military spending is higher than at any point of the Cold War in inflation-adjusted terms, but relatively low as a percent of national income.“
- Source.
Private Companies
- 87% of companies with revenues above $100m are private.
- Source.
Mine Ownership
Fighting the SEC
- The SEC rulemaking has been under legal siege under Gensler – here is one reason why.
- “A recent study by Harvard Law School professor John Coates found that Wall Street has rushed to the 5th Circuit. Coates, who served as Gensler’s first general counsel at the SEC, says firms are challenging the regulator’s rules in court more often under the chair than his immediate predecessors. He said that, as of February, 80% of those challenges during Gensler’s tenure were in the 5th Circuit.“
S&P FcF Margin
- Have been rising for three decades (in part due to mix to tech).
- Source.
Bridge RNA
- This looks like a big deal – “The bridge RNA system is a fundamentally new mechanism for genome design,” said Dr. Patrick Hsu, senior author of the study and an Arc Institute Core Investigator and University of California, Berkeley Assistant Professor of Bioengineering. “Bridge recombination can universally modify genetic material through sequence-specific insertion, excision, inversion, and more, enabling a word processor for the living genome beyond CRISPR.“
- Full Arc Institute blog here and AI simplified version here.
Architecture Billing Index
- “The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.“
- May took another dive.
New Car Prices
- Recent experience looks very much out of place.
- Source: Fundstrat.
Bank Lending
- Weekly lending data shows a dramatic decline.
- Source.
Soft landing?
- The ISM has been at or below 50 for 18 months now.
- “…where we’ve reached these heights previously, we’ve either been in a recession, or had one about to begin.“
- Source: more reasons for recession here.
Commercial Real Estate
Chevron Deference – What Does it Mean?
- The overturning of the so-called Chevron doctrine has huge far-reaching ramifications (Claude.ai summary via MR) in how the US writes, interprets, and implements administrative laws.
- Here is a great detailed analysis (before the ruling) of its implications and path forward.
Hard vs. Soft Tech
- Hedge funds, based on prime book data, have gone very long hard tech (semis) and reduced net exposure to software.
UK Public Spending
- Everything but healthcare has seen very sharp cutbacks.
- “What international comparisons tell us is that these cuts in public spending have moved the UK to the bottom of the G7 in terms of spending and taxation.“
- Source: Mainlymacro.
Archegos Story
- The timeline. JEF CEO comes out on top.
UK Election Prediction Aggregator
- Very useful site aggregating constituency-level predictions for the upcoming election.
- Summary – “This summary shows, for each model and each party, the number of seats where that party is predicted to get the most votes.“